Attack or defence: Which wins titles?

Predictably, Premier League champions have typically been strong at both ends of the pitch, but traditionally they’ve been better in attack.

Since 1995/96 the Premier League champions of each year have ranked on average 1.45 out of 20 for their goals scored, compared to an average rank of 2.41 for goals conceded.

In total, 14 out of 22 champions have had the strongest attack during that season, whereas only 9 have had the best defence.

Sir Alex himself was the expert at winning titles with an inferior defence, made up for by an insurmountable attack.

When United won the title in 1996/97 they only had the seventh best defence, shipping 44 goals. Blackburn, who finished 13th that season conceded less goals than that year’s league-winners.

Fergie continued in the same manner, with only the fourth best defence in 1998/99, the sixth best in 1999/00 and the fifth best in 2012/13.

In all of those title-winning seasons mentioned, United out scored every other team in the league.

Only twice have the Premier League champions not had one of the two strongest attacks in the league, Arsenal in 1997/98 and Leicester in 2015/16, both ranking 3rd.

Over the last 22 years, there have only been five champions who have scored more goals and conceded fewer than any other team.

Manchester City in 2011/12, Manchester United in 2007/08 and 2000/01, Chelsea in 2005/06 and Arsenal in 2003/04 were all superior at both ends of the pitch.

If the final Premier League table was based on the average rank of each club’s attack and defence, six of the last 22 champions would not have won the league.

Manchester United would have finished fourth in 1996/97 and second in 1999/00, losing out to Arsenal both times, but United would’ve returned the favour in 1997/98, lifting the trophy instead of the Gunners.

Fergie’s final season would have ended in failure, as United would’ve finished third behind champions Chelsea and Arsenal.

More recently, Tottenham would’ve won the Premier League in the last two seasons, ridding Leicester of their fairy-tale story and ruining Antonio Conte’s first season in England.

Whilst it is clear that you need to be near the top at both ends, a blistering attack has been more influential than a stubborn defence when it comes to winning titles.