UCL PREVIEW: Chelsea vs Real Madrid: Tactical analysis, prediction

Chelsea face an uphill task to turn around their Champions League semi-final tie against Real Madrid after losing 2-0 in the first leg in Madrid.

Despite a relatively fortunate result, with Ben Chillwell’s red card leaving the Blues with only a single-goal deficit, the history books don’t bode well for Chelsea. Real Madrid have progressed from 18 of their 19 UEFA Champions League ties after winning the first leg by two or more goals, with their vast experience in the competition making them formidable opponents.

Real Madrid has also won nine of their last 11 UEFA Champions League matches and their last five knockout matches, all against English teams.

Although Chelsea has progressed in the past after losing the first leg by two goals, Real Madrid is a different animal in the Champions League.

The Blues have a good home record in the Champions League, having lost just one of their last 10 home games. However, their only home loss came against Real Madrid last season, and the Spanish side is fancied to win again at Stamford Bridge. Despite not needing a win to progress, Real Madrid is a tempting bet at odds against.

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PREVIOUS MEETING

Real Madrid had a relatively easy win over Chelsea in the first leg of their Champions League tie. Karim Benzema scored the opening goal with a tap-in after Kepa Arrizabalaga deflected Vinícius Júnior’s shot.

Benzema has scored 20 goals against English teams in the UCL, second only to Lionel Messi’s 27. Chelsea’s situation worsened when Ben Chilwell was sent off for a foul on Vinícius Júnior. Chilwell became the first Chelsea player to be sent off in the UCL since February 2020.

Real Madrid had a one-man advantage, but could only score one more goal by Marco Asensio. Asensio has scored nine goals as a substitute in the UCL, the most of any player in the competition’s history. Chelsea faced 10 shots on target, which was their highest number in a UCL match since November 2012.

It was also the first time they faced 10 or more shots on target since August 2019 against Liverpool. The first leg made it seem like the tie could have been over.

RECENT FORM

Real Madrid: WWDWW

Chelsea: LLLDL

Frank Lampard’s second stint as Chelsea manager has not been a happy one so far, with the team losing all three of his games in charge, including a recent defeat against Brighton where they conceded 26 shots, the most in a Premier League home game on record.

Chelsea are currently on a winless run of four Premier League home games, their worst such run since 2015-16.  In contrast, Real Madrid won 2-0 against Cadiz with a whopping 35 shots attempted, the highest total by any team in a single match in La Liga this season.

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Despite trailing Barcelona by nine points in the league, Real Madrid’s strong performance in cup competitions gives them a chance at silverware this season. In the Champions League, Chelsea topped their group ahead of Milan, RB Salzburg, and Dinamo Zagreb, and then progressed to the quarter-finals by turning around a last-16 tie against Borussia Dortmund.

Real Madrid won their group ahead of RB Leipzig, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Celtic, and qualified for the quarter-finals with an emphatic victory over Liverpool, including a 5-2 win at Anfield in the first leg.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Chelsea – Kai Havertz

Chelsea have been struggling to score goals lately, only managing to score once in their last five games across all competitions.

Kai Havertz is expected to lead Chelsea’s attack and will likely be entrusted to make a difference in this tie. Despite missing Chelsea’s weekend game due to a slight knee injury, Lampard has said he should be fit for this match.

Havertz has been involved in 37 attacking sequences that ended in a shot for Chelsea in the UCL campaign, and has taken 18 shots, the most of anyone on the team.

Real Madrid – Karim Benzema

Karim Benzema is in unstoppable form in the Champions League knockout stages, especially against English teams.

The Real Madrid striker has scored his last 11 UCL goals against English opposition, and his last 14 goals have all come in the knockout stages of the tournament, which is the longest such run by any player in UCL history.

Benzema has also been in outstanding form, contributing 14 goals and two assists for Real Madrid in his last nine appearances in the knockout stages of the tournament.

PREDICTION

Real Madrid are the odds on favourites to win the second leg in west London (40.6%). Chelsea win this game just over a third of the time (33.7%), while the draw is the least likely outcome at 25.7%.