The highly anticipated Clásico between Real Madrid and Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semi-final is difficult to predict this season.
While Barcelona lead La Liga by 12 points, they were knocked out of both the UEFA Champions League and Europa League and have looked disjointed at times. On the other hand, Real Madrid are in the UCL quarter-finals after an impressive win over Liverpool, but sit 12 points behind a Barcelona side who have not been at their best this season.
There have been four meetings between the two teams this season, with Barcelona winning the last three, including the Spanish Super Cup in Saudi Arabia. However, none of these games had the usual intensity that is associated with this fixture.
Barcelona have won games in different ways this season, but some fans are concerned about Xavi’s style of play, which deviates from the club’s dogmatic approach. However, Xavi’s response to his critics is that they are currently 12 points clear of Real Madrid in La Liga and have the chance to win a treble in his first full season in charge.
But detractors point to their poor form in Europe, having been knocked out of the Champions League in the group stages and the Europa League by Manchester United.
Real Madrid, under the management of Ancelotti, are equally confusing this season. Ancelotti has been linked with the Brazil national team job, and his team is currently far behind a Barcelona side that doesn’t seem much better. However, he has a chance to win the Champions League, which would alleviate some of the doubts surrounding his future.
Barcelona has a growing injury list, with Pedri still out, leaving a big hole in midfield, and Frenkie de Jong also nearing a return. Real Madrid is coping with Ferland Mendy’s injury by playing Eduardo Camavinga at left-back, who has performed well while being moved around the field this season.
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Both teams come into the game with different goals and objectives, and it remains to be seen which side will come out on top in this crucial game.
RECENT MEETING
Barcelona defeated Real Madrid in their last encounter, which helped them gain an advantage in the LaLiga standings.
Although Ronald Araújo scored an own goal for Barcelona, Sergi Roberto and Franck Kessie helped them regain the lead. In the last game, Barcelona was able to outscore Real Madrid in xG, dominate possession, and take more shots.
To understand Xavi’s different strategies against Real Madrid this season, we can look at the first leg of the Copa del Rey tie, where Barcelona sat deep and absorbed Real Madrid’s pressure after taking the lead.
They had only 35.0% possession in that game, which was their lowest possession percentage of the season and the second time they had lost the battle for the ball all year.
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RECENT FORM
Real Madrid and Barcelona are both coming off impressive wins in their previous matches. Real Madrid secured a 6-0 victory over Real Valladolid, with Karim Benzema netting a hat-trick and other players such as Rodrygo, Marco Asensio, and Lucas Vázquez also contributing goals.
Barcelona, on the other hand, defeated Elche 3-0, with their solid defense leading them to another clean sheet.
Overall this season, Barcelona has conceded only 31 goals in 41 games, the lowest of any top five European league side, and have kept 23 clean sheets, thanks in part to goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen. Barcelona has been on a winning streak, having won their last five games, including two victories over Real Madrid, as well as Athletic Club and Valencia.
In the Copa del Rey, Barcelona defeated third-tier sides Intercity and Ceuta, as well as Real Sociedad in the quarter-finals. Real Madrid, on the other hand, defeated Cacereño of the fourth tier, Villarreal, and Atlético Madrid to reach the semi-finals.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Karim Benzema (Real Madrid): Since winning the Ballon d’Or, Benzema’s season has been inconsistent due to injuries. However, when he’s been able to play, he’s been very effective.
He gave a complete performance against Real Valladolid last weekend and appears to be hitting his stride at the right time of the season, scoring three goals in front of the home fans. While he had not scored in league games since February, he did score three goals across two legs against Liverpool in the Champions League.
If Real Madrid wants to turn this tie around, they will need Benzema to be healthy and playing at his best.
Despite his up-and-down form this season, Benzema remains Real Madrid’s leading scorer with 22 goals in all competitions, three more than his teammate Vinícius Júnior. Additionally, he has the same number of assists (five) as influential midfielders Luka Modric and Toni Kroos.
Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona): Since winning the Ballon d’Or, Benzema’s season has been inconsistent due to injuries. However, when he’s been able to play, he’s been very effective.
He gave a complete performance against Real Valladolid last weekend and appears to be hitting his stride at the right time of the season, scoring three goals in front of the home fans. While he had not scored in league games since February, he did score three goals across two legs against Liverpool in the Champions League.
If Real Madrid wants to turn this tie around, they will need Benzema to be healthy and playing at his best.
Despite his up-and-down form this season, Benzema remains Real Madrid’s leading scorer with 22 goals in all competitions, three more than his teammate Vinícius Júnior. Additionally, he has the same number of assists (five) as influential midfielders Luka Modric and Toni Kroos.
PREDICTION
The Opta supercomputer gives Barcelona a 43.0% chance of beating Real Madrid in Wednesday night’s Copa del Rey semi-final second leg.