A look at every team in the Champions League, ranked by their likelihood of winning the big-eared trophy next summer
Two-thirds of the way through the Champions League group stage we are beginning to get an idea of how things will shake out.
But Real Madrid and Barcelona dropping points this week has dented confidence in two of the tournament’s most-decorated clubs.
Will they bounce back to seal top spot in their groups?
It’s more important than you might think.
(A reminder, the rankings are compiled in accordance with each team’s perceived likelihood of winning the Champions League trophy.)
1. Barcelona (-)
Considering how dominant the Spanish champions were for the first 40 minutes of this game, it was a surprise how much they let it get away from them.
That could be put down to the absence of Andres Iniesta, who obviously adds a lot more control to this side than Andre Gomes is able to right now, but Barcelona also quite clearly missed Jordi Alba and Gerard Pique.
With their full first XI out, they’re still the best side in Europe.
And they’re still on course for top spot.
2. Atletico (up 1)
Atletico Madrid have finally conceded their first Champions League goal of the season but it didn’t stop them netting their fourth win of four.
This was the least-convincing performance so far from Diego Simeone’s men but it keeps them on track to win the group.
Holding Bayern to a draw in Munich in December will seal it, while their hopes of going all the way are much stronger with their best attacking unit since Diego Simeone took over.
3. Real Madrid (down 1)
A draw away to the worst team in the entire competition sees Madrid slip down the rankings.
There are too many issues with their defence right now to stay confident in them and this is 10 games in a row now where they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet.
Legia scored against them in both fixtures, which doesn’t bode well.
4. Bayern (-)
Bayern still have a chance of topping their group but are up against it with Atletico now only needing a draw at the Allianz Arena to further tighten their grip.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side aren’t fully in stride yet but they don’t need to be. His record in knockout competitions suggests they will get hot at the right time.
Coming from behind to beat PSV was a good sign.
5. Dortmund (up 1)
Dortmund’s game with Real Madrid will be the one that decides the group, but another win on the road in Europe cements their status as dark horses under Thomas Tuchel.
Top of Group F, a draw at the Bernabeu will now hand Dortmund an easier passage through the knockout stages.
6. Juventus (down 1)
Dropping points against Lyon was not in the script and Max Allegri’s side have now handed control of the group over to Sevilla.
Their meeting at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán next time out will likely settle top spot but Juve will still qualify.
7. Man City (up 1)
Beating the competition favourites is a great way to bounce back from their humiliation at the Nou Camp but it doesn’t do much to shake up this group and City still face an uphill battle to nick top spot.
Coming second means a far more difficult way through the knockout rounds, but if you want to be the best you’ve got to beat the best.
On Tuesday night, City showed that they can do that.
8. Arsenal (down 1)
While Mesut Ozil’s incredible late winner was worthy of winning any game, that Arsenal had to come back from 2-0 down to beat Ludogorets is cause for concern.
It’s not the mark of likely champions and the Gunners need to sharpen up a bit if they’re to take on Europe’s elite.
As before, their showdown with Paris Saint-Germain will decide top spot in Group A.
9. Sevilla (up 1)
Jorge Sampaoli has previously taken sides deep into continental competition with his unique brand of football and this is a team that can’t be ignored.
They’re now in charge of Group H and if they can send Juve back to Italy with anything less than a win then they’ll likely confirm top spot.
10. PSG (-)
Thomas Meunier’s last-gasp winner was almost as sensational as Mesut Ozil’s.
But the fact that Arsenal once again matched PSG’s result means that the Gunners hold the advantage in the pursuit of top spot.
Unai Emery’s men, who are misfiring a bit on the domestic front, now need to head to London hoping for a win.
11. Leicester (-)
Leicester City’s fairytale may not have continued into their league form for the new season but in Europe, on the continent’s biggest stage, the Foxes continue to dazzle.
Many observed, probably correctly, that they got lucky with a softish group.
But all Leicester can do is win games, and they’ve done that in three of four so far. A goalless draw in Copenhagen leaves them as the only team yet to concede.
12. Benfica (-)
The Portuguese giants won in Kiev to haul themselves back into contention in this group last time out.
A narrow victory at home against the same opponents on Tuesday has them right in the mix in one of the more intriguing groups.
Besiktas away and then Napoli at home await and just a point separates the three teams. It’s too tight to call.
13. Monaco (-)
The tightest group in the competition got blown open a little on Wednesday and Monaco are the principal beneficiaries.
They are favourites to finish first but have to play both of their main rivals for the honour.
It will go down to the final day.
14. Porto (up 1)
The Portuguese champions look good to, at worst, take second place in this group.
They will be one of the sides that people are happy to draw in the knockout phase but you have to be in it to win it and that’s what Nuno Espirito Santo has nearly secured for his side.
15. Napoli (up 3)
After a strong start, Napoli’s hold of this group has slipped since the long-term injury sustained by Arky Milik.
Without the Polish hitman they’ve taken one point from two games against Besiktas and now just one point separates the top three in this group.
It will go down to the wire.
16. Leverkusen (up 1)
Roger Schmidt is a very impressive young coach and his side are very much in the mix to qualify from an open group.
A win in London helps them on their way but there are two tough games ahead.
17. Besiktas (up 3)
Besiktas are still undefeated and remain just one point off the top two in this group.
With Benfica at home next and then rock-bottom Dynamo Kiev on the final matchday there’s no reason why Besiktas can’t sneak through to the last sixteen.
18. Tottenham (down 4)
Mauricio Pochettino admitted that their next game in Monte Carlo is “must win” and their disastrous home form means that even then we can have little faith in Spurs getting things done on matchday six.
What a disappointing campaign for a team that promised so much.
19. Kobenhavn (down 2)
The Danes will back themselves to hold or beat Porto at home before taking something in Brugge.
But we haven’t seen enough from Kobenhavn over the years to have faith in their ability to close out this group – Leicester’s exploits last year and Porto’s rich history of success in Europe has them both ranked higher.
20. Sporting (up 3)
Last time we wrote: “In a group with two spectacularly good teams, third place and a Europa-shaped losers medal is as good as it will get.”
Should they and Dortmund beat Real Madrid in the remaining fixtures then they will qualify.
The chances are remote but this isn’t impossible after the trouble Os Leões caused at the Bernabeu.
21. Gladbach (down 5)
All chance of edging Man City out of second place appears to have melted away with Ilkay Gundogan’s match-winning brace at the Etihad and Celtic stealing a point in Germany.
They now need to beat City at Borussia Park and then match what Guardiola’s men do against Celtic when they travel to Barca on the final matchday.
It seems far-fetched.
22. CSKA Moscow (down 1)
The Russians are very unlikely to get out of this group.
Maths and maths alone keeps them above some better sides in the power rankings.
23. Lyon (down 1)
Juventus and Sevilla have a hold over this group.
A point in Turin helps but it’s still a very steep uphill battle to finish in the top two.
24. FC Basel (-)
Basel can’t qualify for the knockout phase and their best prize is third place and a Europa League spot with two far bigger, richer clubs now guaranteed to occupy the top couple of spots.
You’d like to think they could beat out Ludogorets for that final berth.
25. Dynamo Kiev (-)
Mathematically they’re not out of this group but in practical terms they are.
Even third place feels unlikely.
26. Celtic (-)
Rock-bottom Celtic needed to beat Gladbach in either of these back-to-back fixtures to have a chance.
They didn’t and are not going to be getting to the Champions League knockout stages.
If Brendan Rodgers’ men can’t beat Barcelona or Man City then they’re out of European competition entirely.
27. PSV (-)
They’re now mathematically eliminated from a group which boasts two of the tournament’s top four sides.
A battle with Rostov for third place might not be the most enchanting of campaigns to watch but it’s what awaits them now.
28. Ludogorets (-)
PSG and Arsenal have the group on lockdown.
If they can shock Basel then they’re in the Europa League at least. It comes down to that one fixture.
29. Club Brugge (-)
The Belgians are dead.
Even sneaking a Europa League place feels impossible.
30. Rostov (-)
See PSV, but add in the fact that Rostov are a worse team.
They’re toast. Cold, Russian toast.
31. Legia Warsaw (up 1)
The worst team in the competition somehow nicked a point off Real Madrid.
It doesn’t change anything.
Stick a fork in ’em – they’re done.
32. Dinamo Zagreb (down 1)
Way too good for the Croatian league but nowhere near good enough for the Champions League.
Another season where they’ve been pummeled out of sight in the group stage.
P4 W0 D0 L4 F0 A12 tells its own story.
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