Man City and Bayern Munich will meet for the seventh time in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday night, with both teams having won three times in the previous encounters.
Former Bayern coach Pep Guardiola will lead Man City against his former club, where he won the Bundesliga in all three seasons but failed to clinch the Champions League.
Bayern’s new coach Thomas Tuchel, who outfoxed Guardiola in the 2021 UCL final, will aim for another victory against his old rival.
Guardiola has the best win percentage of any manager in the knockout stages of the Champions League, and his team is favoured to win this match. Bayern’s Thomas Müller could become the third player to achieve 100 wins in the competition with a single club if Bayern wins, after Cristiano Ronaldo (115) and Iker Casillas (101).
Man City and Bayern Munich have faced each other six times in European competition, with three wins each – all in the Champions League. Their last meeting in the 2014-15 group stage saw City win 3-2 at the Etihad Stadium, thanks to a hat-trick from Sergio Agüero. Xabi Alonso and Robert Lewandowski’s goals for Bayern were not enough to secure a win.
It was the second consecutive season that City had enjoyed a 3-2 Champions League win over Bayern. The last four meetings between the two sides saw Pep Guardiola manage Bayern against his current team, City, winning two and losing two.
Manchester City head into this match with a strong record, having won their last eight games in all competitions and remaining unbeaten in their last 12 (W10 D2) since their loss to Tottenham in the Premier League on February 5th. During their winning streak, they have scored 31 goals, averaging 3.88 goals per game.
In their most recent Premier League match against Southampton, Manchester City dominated in a 4-1 victory with goals from Erling Haaland (2), Jack Grealish, and a Julián Álvarez penalty.
Furthermore, since the resumption of play following the 2022 FIFA World Cup, they have been unbeaten in 11 competitive games at the Etihad Stadium (W10 D1).
On the other hand, Bayern Munich have alternated between wins and defeats in their last five matches (W3 D0 L2), losing to Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga and at home to Freiburg in the DFB Pokal last midweek. However, they were able to recover and defeat Freiburg 1-0 away from home in their most recent Bundesliga match with a second-half goal from Matthijs de Ligt.
Manchester City’s success extends to the UEFA Champions League this season, as they remain unbeaten after winning five and drawing three of their eight matches. They topped Group G ahead of Borussia Dortmund, Sevilla, and FC Copenhagen before defeating RB Leipzig, another Bundesliga club, 8-1 on aggregate in the round of 16. In the second leg of that tie, they won 7-0 at the Etihad Stadium, with Erling Haaland scoring five goals, equalling a UCL record. This victory tied their previous biggest UCL win, a 7-0 victory against Schalke 04 in the 2018-19 last 16.
Meanwhile, Bayern Munich made it to the 2022-23 UCL quarter-finals by winning what was considered the toughest group of all this season – Group C, ahead of Internazionale, Barcelona, and Viktoria Plzeň. In the round of 16, they defeated Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 on aggregate after winning 1-0 away and 2-0 at home.
Although Bayern Munich has the meanest defence in the UCL this season, with the fewest goals conceded (two) and most clean sheets (seven), it is Manchester City that has allowed the lowest quality chances per game on average in the competition this season. Their 0.59 xG against per game is superior to fellow quarter-finalists Chelsea (0.83) and Bayern (0.98).
Manchester City: Erling Haaland
Haaland is in an incredible run of form, having scored a total of 11 goals in his last four competitive games. This includes one goal against Crystal Palace in the Premier League, five goals against RB Leipzig in his previous UEFA Champions League outing, a hat-trick versus Burnley in the FA Cup, and a brace in Manchester City’s recent Premier League victory over Southampton.
Having amassed a total of 44 goals for Manchester City this season, Haaland has equaled the record for the most goals scored by a player at a Premier League club in a single season across all competitions. This achievement was previously accomplished by Ruud van Nistelrooy at Manchester United in 2002-03 and Mohamed Salah at Liverpool in 2017-18.
Haaland also leads the goal-scoring charts in the UEFA Champions League for the 2022-23 season with 10 goals. Remarkably, he has achieved this feat in only six appearances for Manchester City in the competition, equalling the record for the fewest number of games needed for a player to score 10 goals for a specific club in the Champions League.
This record was previously held by Sébastien Haller for Ajax, who also reached this milestone in six matches.
Bayern Munich: Jamal Musiala
Despite experiencing a dip in form after the World Cup, Jamal Musiala remains a significant threat to opposing defenses at Bayern Munich.
Since the resumption of action in Germany, Musiala has contributed three goals and three assists in 16 competitive appearances for Bayern, playing a total of 1,055 minutes. In the recent 1-0 victory over Freiburg, he created three chances for his teammates and provided the assist for the winning goal, taking his tally for the 2022-23 season to 12 assists, which is the highest among all Bayern players this campaign.
Musiala’s ability to carry the ball and create chances is evident from his statistics. He has made the highest number of shot involvements following a carry (50) among all Bayern players this season, and his 120 take-ons in the opposition half is second only to Leroy Sané (122) and Alphonso Davies (130) in the German club.
In addition, Musiala has created more open-play chances (61) than any other player in the Bayern squad this season. Manchester City will need to pay close attention to the young German’s threat in the upcoming match.
According to pre-match predictions, Manchester City are the favourites to win the upcoming Champions League match on Tuesday. They have been assigned a 54.9% chance of winning the game, while Bayern Munich have been given a probability of just over 22% to secure an away victory and take it back to Munich (22.6%).
Given the strength of both sides’ defence, betting on under 2.5 goals may be a viable option.