By Dauda Musbau
For every Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager, gameweek 38 is the final lap to be decisive to win their mini-league and if, however, they are chasing points, playing it safe with the most captained player is a trap and risky because your rival has the same player.
The logical strategy for the final Sunday is picking players who are facing relegated or defensively weak teams. For instance, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley are already down for relegation, which makes them easy prey for the teams they face, respectively.
Teams like West Ham must win at home against Leeds United to have any survival hope, as also is Tottenham, which is still hanging and needs to fight for survival.
In this article, Sporting Tribune analyses everything FPL managers need to make the call that could define their season.
Best Differential captains to own
Erling Haaland vs Aston Villa (H)
Erling Haaland tops the captaincy poll this week with 35% of the votes against Aston Villa at home. The numbers back it up completely.
Over the last six Gameweeks, Haaland ranks top among all players for shots (24), shots on target (10), shots in the box (23), big chances (10), and Expected Goals (xG) of 5.42. He has the highest anytime returns projection of 68% and a 7.5 points projection for GW38.
Bruno Fernandes (£10.4m) vs Brighton (A)
Bruno Fernandes equalled the all-time Premier League assist record against Forest in GW37, and will be looking to hold the record outright as Manchester United travel to Brighton on the final day.
Over the last six Gameweeks, he is top among all players for FPL assists (six), attempted assists (31), big chances created (eight), and Expected Assists (xA) of 4.27.
Jarrod Bowen vs Leeds United (H)
West Ham need a win to have any chance of survival in the league. Bowen has produced double-digit hauls in two of his last three home games, and he remains completely nailed for minutes, is on penalties, has a share of set pieces, and acts as the talisman of the side.
Leeds United, their opponents, sit in 14th place with virtually nothing to play for.
Osula (Newcastle vs Fulham (A)
For managers who need massive swings, this is the ultra-punt. Since securing the starting spot from Gameweek 32, Osula has scored five goals and ranks first for goals and bonus points, second for FPL points, xGI, and big chances, and third for xG over that period.
He will face a Fulham team who have tailed off at the end of the season, having conceded 11 big chances over the last four Gameweeks, which is approximately the joint worst in the league.
Avoid Defensive Transfers This Week
No team currently has a clean sheet probability that justifies spending a transfer on a defender in GW38. Final-day football is notoriously open with managers resting players, systems thrown aside, and emotions running high.
Every transfer hit you take this week should go toward an attacking player you plan to captain. A minus-4 for a defensive asset is one of the most common GW38 mistakes made by Nigerian FPL managers every season.
